Water security– vital for national survival: Wake up, please
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Guest Article by Dr. Ali Mohammad. Author of the book “Wither, Not Pakistan”
The scarcity of fossil fuel, food, and water has become serious challenges to the world’s peace and prosperity. Initially, oil has been a major source of serious conflict and war between nations. Oil-producing countries have used oil to fleece the importing countries, while powerful nations have used every means to control that source. Most of today’s conflicts are ultimately aimed at controlling the oil wealth of producing countries, especially the Middleast. Imitating the power of OPEC, some food exporting countries have reportedly formed a cartel of food, which can be the next potent means for blackmail, and subjugation of the food- deficit countries. Since mid-1990s, this writer has warned Pakistani policy-makers that self-sufficiency in food is vital for the country’s independence and for its very survival.
Another serious threat to the survival of humanity and Pakistan is the shortage of water. International agencies have reported that the entire world is faced with water shortages both in terms of quantity and quality. The major causes of this looming crisis are increasing population, urbanization, environmental degradation, and lack of adequate development and management of water resources. According to the World Bank over eighty countries are already suffering from severe water shortages. It has also reported that per capita water availability for many countries is expected to decline by one-third within the next twenty years from present levels leading to social, political, and economic instability and, ultimately, to international conflicts. There are at least a dozen flashpoints in the world where countries could go to war in the future due to water-related conflicts. Similarly, there is a real chance that present conflicts arising due to India’s violating the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 with Pakistan could escalate to a full-blown war in the not too distant future. For Pakistan, the situation is reaching a critical point. Previously, Pakistan was envied for the abundance of its water resources – according to one estimate 5,000 cu.m. per person was available which has declined now to 1,000 cu.m per person. With our population growing at 1.5% per annum and an increasing demand for crops and industry, the availability of water will be further reduced. The situation is even more serious than oil and food shortages.
Pakistan’s water crisis is largely due to two sets of problems. Firstly, Pakistan depends upon the Indus River for one-half of its irrigation and also one-half of electricity generation. As the headwater of Indus basin system is within Indian-held Kashmir, historically, India has used water as a weapon to force Pakistan into submission to meet her hegemonic designs. India initiated this strategy immediately after partition. However, Pakistan’s firm stand on this issue forced India to agree to mediation by the World Bank and ultimately the two countries signed a treaty, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) on September 19, 1960. Under the terms of the Treaty, western tributaries of the Indus River (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) were to be assigned to Pakistan and eastern tributaries (Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas) to India. Unfortunately, in 1984, India violated the Treaty by deciding to build the Wuller Barrage on the Jhelum River in Kashmir. After strong protests from Pakistan, India halted construction in 1987, but there is no firm decision on the future of this project. In the 1990s, India decided to construct yet another dam, the Baglihar dam, on the Chenab River. Pakistan again approached the World Bank in 2005, which, after a few minor changes allowed India continued the construction, but did not allow any reduction in allocated flow of water to Pakistan. India has not respected this decision and has reduced the flow causing large-scale crop reductions in Pakistan worth billions of dollars. India’s actions are a clear violation of Article I (11) of IWT, which prohibits both parties from undertaking any “man-made obstruction” that may cause “change in the volume of the daily flow of waters”. Furthermore Article III (4) specifically barred India, from “storing any water of, or construct any storage works on the Western Rivers”. Many in Pakistan believe that India’s intransigence amounts not only to blackmail, but is actually responsible for turning Pakistan into a desert. They also believe that India can reduce water when our farmers need it the most, and flood our rivers when we do not need water resulting in floods, death, and destruction.
Secondly, on the domestic front, increasing population, industrialization, environmental degradation, sedimentation in all its dams namely Warsak, Tarbela, and Mangla are also responsible for the water crisis today. Moreover, petty minded bureaucrats and corrupt politicians, and their lack of concern for developing and managing our water resources have added to the ominous crisis. Due to their incompetence, the country could not develop adequate research facilities for social, economic and technical studies of water conservation, management, and its distribution. They also failed to build up country’s capability to handle serious problems related to dams, reservoirs, and sedimentation. There is also little attention given to control water pollution which has not only reduced the quality of water but has resulted in plugged up canals and rivers, or in defective distribution systems. Furthermore, in many cities, uncontrolled drilling for water goes on without any concern for destruction of underground water resources.
Where do we go from here? First, in addition to financing militancy and terrorism, India is also endeavoring to strangulate Pakistan by building dams on rivers that provide much needed water, vital to its very survival. The water crisis, largely perpetrated by India’s doing, can also heighten inter-provincial rivalries in Pakistan. India should be reminded of international agreements and should be warned that Pakistan should not be pushed to the wall where full-scale war is the only choice left. Moreover, as both Kharif and Rabi crops have suffered largely due to India blocking water to the Chenab River, Pakistan should also ask for compensation of losses due to violations of the IWT by India in the last twenty years.
Secondly, Pakistan must build dams on all rivers and “nalas” to overcome the water crisis and secure water and food supplies. Politicians must rise above their petty self-interest and realize the needs of the country and India’s designs. It is not patriotic to oppose dams when India is stealing our waters; they should rather be challenging India for her clear violation of international commitments.
Moreover, we must develop water conservation policy in order to conserve water, reduce losses, and reduce water contamination in both surface and ground resources, and increase water use efficiency. The major instruments of this policy are watershed management, river management, demand management, regulation in using underground water, improving the distribution system both in the case of municipal and irrigation uses, improving drainage system, appropriate water- pricing policy, recycling waste water that can be used for non-potable purposes, public awareness of the looming crisis and judicious use of water, and improving extension services to farmers with a focus on water use.
Immediate steps are also needed to control sedimentation, which is harming all our present dams. We must also give attention to desiltation, aquifer protection, and recharge. Many countries are collecting rainwater in natural and manmade depressions. This process, termed as rain harvesting, involves simple and least cost techniques. These techniques can easily be adopted in our urban and rural areas.
Furthermore, research and development efforts must be intensified in developing crop varieties suitable for arid/rain fed and saline areas or those crops that need less water. Many water deficit countries have improved their irrigation techniques such as using drip irrigation. Pakistani policy-makers should give full support to these steps.
Finally, many countries have established desalination plants. Pakistan also in 2007 planned to construct its first desalination plant. With almost 1,000 kilometers of coastal areas, we can certainly benefit from such a technology.
In conclusion, we must stress that energy needs can be met through solar, wind, nuclear, thermal, and biogas sources. We can also find alternative sources of food and switch our food patterns in order to survive. But there is no substitute for water. Life cannot be sustained for more than a few days without water. In fact, behind today’s food shortages there looms a water crisis. Therefore, we urge our leaders to wake up and give heed to the impending water crisis and unitedly protect our water assets, both on the international and national levels. As Mao Tze Tung would say that we must not let any drop of our water go to the ocean without first benefiting the nation.
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